FFAC Recap - Week 10: Skip to My Frequency of Recaps This Year
Ahem.
Flem cough.
Welcome to Week 10 Recap.
RECAP
Alright cool so let's pretend all recaps and podcasts (speaking of, link to our latest here featuring Zach and Jamie):
Got some sick embed action for you now. Anywho, I APOLOGIZE for being so inconsistent with recaps and stuff this season. But, here's Week 10 and finally...the start of PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS BAYBEEEEEEEEEEEEE. (Also quick shout out to my peeps still reading these, I see you Diana, Meg, Witkop, Cody, and most most importantly, bb Spencer).
I'm going to start off with Stefan v MJ because boy oh boy did Stefan drop an ass whoopin last week. 155 - 69 (aye) for a total of 85.84 differential, making it our new season high blowout. The hits just keep on coming for our "Rookie of the Year". Somehow, by a super thing margin, all hope is not lost yet for MJ but at this point, he's going to need a LOT of help.
Closest match this week was Ryan v Shiv, as somehow, Shiv manages to pull of the upset 115.1 - 113.56. Yet, even with the win, Shiv still sits in that 12th spot. So I don't know if that's worse for Shiv or Ryan (definitely Ryan). Ryan's woes continue as he's now dropped 3 straight and on the hot seat for a playoff spot, as he and Jamie are tied at 5-5 and both hold the 5th and 6th seeds, respectively.
Speaking of Jamie, on the other hand, I've got to hand it to her. Headed into Week 7, Jamie was sitting at 1-5 and looking to be dangerously close to being a one and done member of FFAC L1. But now has the season high win streak as she's pulled off 4 straight, and holds the 6th spot. With games against Shiv, MJ, and Shelby coming up, she seems to be in control of her destiny, although the loss of Cooper Kupp is sure to be a hit.
On to Mr Jason "Fireball" Reynoso. I'm honoring you with full name this one time, as Fireball is our first and only team as of this writing to clinch a playoff spot. Congrats. Pat yourself on the back. Maybe we should all strive for the Fireball nick name during the draft next season (I think I'll pass, though). There's a way outside chance that Jay, Zach, and yours truly can get bounced out, but it's highly unlikely thanks to record and remaining games. But, more on that later.
As for the rest of us, I beat Nick, Shelby pulls the upset against Jay, Jason EASILY beats KO (SET YOUR LINEUP KO PLS), and Jamie also blows out Zach.
Oh, and Ben M is still running away with FFAC L2, so, there's that. It's not even close, TBH. Adam Rock and Jack are tied for 2nd. I'm guessing we're going to welcome Ben and Adam Johnson to this league next season (well, AJ for sure if I want to keep my job, probably).
And now for some number munching:
LEEROYYYYY JEEEEEEEEEEEENKINS PLAY. OFF. HYPEEEEEE!!!!
1. Fireball (8-2)*
2. Zach (7-3) 99%
3. Papa (7-3) 99%
4. Jay (6-4) 89%
5. Ryan (5-5) 72%
6. Jamie (5-5) 68%
ON THE CUSP:
7. Nick (4-6) 29%
8. Stefan (4-6) 19%
9. Shelby (4-6) 10%
10. KO (4-6) 6%
MJ and Shiv, while TECHNICALLY still not out, each have less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs, effectively being eliminated. Better watch out for that relegation.
Wait, so how did I get to these numbers and stuff? WELL I'M GLAD YOU ASKED. For those of you that haven't seen it (no one has, actually), each year around Week 11, I start doing playoff projections. While, yes Zach, Yahoo has their version, it SUCKS and mine is better thanks to the Human Touch. Sorry, work pun, my bad, won't happen again.
Anyways, there are a few key things taken into consideration here: current total points for, projected points for ranking, current standings, remaining match-ups, and literally over 2k simulations of each match-up (based on the previously mentioned stats) to come up with a probability of playoff. The key difference from Yahoo, is that Yahoo only looks at CURRENT roster for "optimal lineups" in their match-up projections, which is STUPID since anyone with a single K, DEF, or TE (usually it's these 3) that potentially is on Bye in the coming 3 weeks, doesn't get taken into consideration, and this is where the human touch comes in. I KNOW those spots are likely to be replaced, so, hence MY PROJECTIONS ARE BETTER.
Anyways some day maybe I'll do a full write up on my spreadsheet and give it it's own page on the blog so I don't have to keep explaining it each year to those of us that have been around for a few years now.
Unfortunately for Nick, Stefan, Shelby, and KO, it will be an uphill struggle and you will absolutely need some help from Jay, Ryan, and Jamie (but mostly Ryan and Jamie) in order to get a spot in the playoffs. The schedule doesn't help, since there are limited opportunities to play a current playoff team, and this week in particular is not exactly helpful, as only Nick, and Stefan play a playoff team. As things stand, KO really only gets 1 shot at a playoff team, and that's the regular season finale against Zach. Nick, Stefan, and Shelby all get 2 of the final 3 matches against someone on the cusp. The REAL match-ups will be any of these 4 against Jay Ryan or Jamie.
As for Fireball, Zach, Jay and myself, it's basically just a fight for a 1st round bye at this point. I will note, last year, Shiv was literally in Fireball's current position (same record, only to clinch by Week 11, highest league scorer) and ended up losing in the 2nd round and had to settle on the Bronze. Jay is probably in a good spot thanks to his record, but let's take a look at this weeks key match-ups.
WEEK 11 PREVIEW:
#4 Jay v #5 Ryan:
Jay currently has a healthy +14 advantage in this one, but if Ryan finds a way to pull of this upset, it'll make the the last 2 weeks extremely interesting, because it likely means 3 spots will be potentially up for grabs and anyone outside the top 3 could make it in. Look for this one to set the tone for the remainder of the season as far as playoff implications go. A Jay victory secures his spot and puts Ryan in a tough, but not insurmountable, position.
#6 Jamie v #7 Nick:
Jamie currently holds an ever so slight edge over Nick, 1 game lead in overall standings and vs division record (both in Eggs, I might add), but Nick has a 1.1 point favorable lead in the points for column. If Nick wins by anything over 1.1 points, he would make a leap over Jamie in the standings, although it would not be a guarantee for a playoff spot, believe it or not. Jamie, on the other hand, could either keep pace with Ryan or take his spot. While a Ryan victory puts both Jamie and Jay at 6-5, Jay holds the tiebreaker with a healthy current 120 point differential in the points for column.
#1 Fireball v #8 Stefan:
Stefan has a tall task in front of him as he faces off against Fireball, whom continues to score at a nice clip. However, the line is only +7 in favor of Fireball right now, so a win is not out of the realm of possibility. If Stefan wants to grab a playoff seed after this week, he needs either Jamie or Ryan to lose, on top of working on that point for differential which is the biggest obstacle in his way, even ahead of the Fireball match. He'll need to score at LEAST 50 points more than either Jamie or Ryan this week (on top of a loss for them) to do it. Fireball looks to secure a 1st round bye.
#9 Daughter v #10 Mother:
This, this one will hurt. While a loss doesn't exactly eliminate either of them (based on how the other games go), it's the only match at this moment that hands the other a guaranteed 7th loss. Both of you basically need to win out to grab a spot, but each of their remaining games are not exactly favorable, so, this is the game you both NEED to win. Shelby gets Zach then Myself in the coming weeks after this one, and KO gets Shiv and Zach. I'll go on a limb and say that a loss to Shelby will be more devastating than a loss to KO.
So many possible scenarios left even though it would APPEAR that the playoffs are set. Not in stone, however, so, HAVE AT IT.
-Danny AKA Carry the Zero AKA Ghetto Rage AKA Likes Jack Daniels AKA Shoe Inserts AKA Papa Bless M
Flem cough.
Welcome to Week 10 Recap.
RECAP
Alright cool so let's pretend all recaps and podcasts (speaking of, link to our latest here featuring Zach and Jamie):
Got some sick embed action for you now. Anywho, I APOLOGIZE for being so inconsistent with recaps and stuff this season. But, here's Week 10 and finally...the start of PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS BAYBEEEEEEEEEEEEE. (Also quick shout out to my peeps still reading these, I see you Diana, Meg, Witkop, Cody, and most most importantly, bb Spencer).
I'm going to start off with Stefan v MJ because boy oh boy did Stefan drop an ass whoopin last week. 155 - 69 (aye) for a total of 85.84 differential, making it our new season high blowout. The hits just keep on coming for our "Rookie of the Year". Somehow, by a super thing margin, all hope is not lost yet for MJ but at this point, he's going to need a LOT of help.
Closest match this week was Ryan v Shiv, as somehow, Shiv manages to pull of the upset 115.1 - 113.56. Yet, even with the win, Shiv still sits in that 12th spot. So I don't know if that's worse for Shiv or Ryan (definitely Ryan). Ryan's woes continue as he's now dropped 3 straight and on the hot seat for a playoff spot, as he and Jamie are tied at 5-5 and both hold the 5th and 6th seeds, respectively.
Speaking of Jamie, on the other hand, I've got to hand it to her. Headed into Week 7, Jamie was sitting at 1-5 and looking to be dangerously close to being a one and done member of FFAC L1. But now has the season high win streak as she's pulled off 4 straight, and holds the 6th spot. With games against Shiv, MJ, and Shelby coming up, she seems to be in control of her destiny, although the loss of Cooper Kupp is sure to be a hit.
On to Mr Jason "Fireball" Reynoso. I'm honoring you with full name this one time, as Fireball is our first and only team as of this writing to clinch a playoff spot. Congrats. Pat yourself on the back. Maybe we should all strive for the Fireball nick name during the draft next season (I think I'll pass, though). There's a way outside chance that Jay, Zach, and yours truly can get bounced out, but it's highly unlikely thanks to record and remaining games. But, more on that later.
As for the rest of us, I beat Nick, Shelby pulls the upset against Jay, Jason EASILY beats KO (SET YOUR LINEUP KO PLS), and Jamie also blows out Zach.
Oh, and Ben M is still running away with FFAC L2, so, there's that. It's not even close, TBH. Adam Rock and Jack are tied for 2nd. I'm guessing we're going to welcome Ben and Adam Johnson to this league next season (well, AJ for sure if I want to keep my job, probably).
And now for some number munching:
1. Fireball (8-2)*
2. Zach (7-3) 99%
3. Papa (7-3) 99%
4. Jay (6-4) 89%
5. Ryan (5-5) 72%
6. Jamie (5-5) 68%
ON THE CUSP:
7. Nick (4-6) 29%
8. Stefan (4-6) 19%
9. Shelby (4-6) 10%
10. KO (4-6) 6%
MJ and Shiv, while TECHNICALLY still not out, each have less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs, effectively being eliminated. Better watch out for that relegation.
Wait, so how did I get to these numbers and stuff? WELL I'M GLAD YOU ASKED. For those of you that haven't seen it (no one has, actually), each year around Week 11, I start doing playoff projections. While, yes Zach, Yahoo has their version, it SUCKS and mine is better thanks to the Human Touch. Sorry, work pun, my bad, won't happen again.
Anyways, there are a few key things taken into consideration here: current total points for, projected points for ranking, current standings, remaining match-ups, and literally over 2k simulations of each match-up (based on the previously mentioned stats) to come up with a probability of playoff. The key difference from Yahoo, is that Yahoo only looks at CURRENT roster for "optimal lineups" in their match-up projections, which is STUPID since anyone with a single K, DEF, or TE (usually it's these 3) that potentially is on Bye in the coming 3 weeks, doesn't get taken into consideration, and this is where the human touch comes in. I KNOW those spots are likely to be replaced, so, hence MY PROJECTIONS ARE BETTER.
Anyways some day maybe I'll do a full write up on my spreadsheet and give it it's own page on the blog so I don't have to keep explaining it each year to those of us that have been around for a few years now.
Unfortunately for Nick, Stefan, Shelby, and KO, it will be an uphill struggle and you will absolutely need some help from Jay, Ryan, and Jamie (but mostly Ryan and Jamie) in order to get a spot in the playoffs. The schedule doesn't help, since there are limited opportunities to play a current playoff team, and this week in particular is not exactly helpful, as only Nick, and Stefan play a playoff team. As things stand, KO really only gets 1 shot at a playoff team, and that's the regular season finale against Zach. Nick, Stefan, and Shelby all get 2 of the final 3 matches against someone on the cusp. The REAL match-ups will be any of these 4 against Jay Ryan or Jamie.
As for Fireball, Zach, Jay and myself, it's basically just a fight for a 1st round bye at this point. I will note, last year, Shiv was literally in Fireball's current position (same record, only to clinch by Week 11, highest league scorer) and ended up losing in the 2nd round and had to settle on the Bronze. Jay is probably in a good spot thanks to his record, but let's take a look at this weeks key match-ups.
WEEK 11 PREVIEW:
#4 Jay v #5 Ryan:
Jay currently has a healthy +14 advantage in this one, but if Ryan finds a way to pull of this upset, it'll make the the last 2 weeks extremely interesting, because it likely means 3 spots will be potentially up for grabs and anyone outside the top 3 could make it in. Look for this one to set the tone for the remainder of the season as far as playoff implications go. A Jay victory secures his spot and puts Ryan in a tough, but not insurmountable, position.
#6 Jamie v #7 Nick:
Jamie currently holds an ever so slight edge over Nick, 1 game lead in overall standings and vs division record (both in Eggs, I might add), but Nick has a 1.1 point favorable lead in the points for column. If Nick wins by anything over 1.1 points, he would make a leap over Jamie in the standings, although it would not be a guarantee for a playoff spot, believe it or not. Jamie, on the other hand, could either keep pace with Ryan or take his spot. While a Ryan victory puts both Jamie and Jay at 6-5, Jay holds the tiebreaker with a healthy current 120 point differential in the points for column.
#1 Fireball v #8 Stefan:
Stefan has a tall task in front of him as he faces off against Fireball, whom continues to score at a nice clip. However, the line is only +7 in favor of Fireball right now, so a win is not out of the realm of possibility. If Stefan wants to grab a playoff seed after this week, he needs either Jamie or Ryan to lose, on top of working on that point for differential which is the biggest obstacle in his way, even ahead of the Fireball match. He'll need to score at LEAST 50 points more than either Jamie or Ryan this week (on top of a loss for them) to do it. Fireball looks to secure a 1st round bye.
#9 Daughter v #10 Mother:
This, this one will hurt. While a loss doesn't exactly eliminate either of them (based on how the other games go), it's the only match at this moment that hands the other a guaranteed 7th loss. Both of you basically need to win out to grab a spot, but each of their remaining games are not exactly favorable, so, this is the game you both NEED to win. Shelby gets Zach then Myself in the coming weeks after this one, and KO gets Shiv and Zach. I'll go on a limb and say that a loss to Shelby will be more devastating than a loss to KO.
So many possible scenarios left even though it would APPEAR that the playoffs are set. Not in stone, however, so, HAVE AT IT.
-Danny AKA Carry the Zero AKA Ghetto Rage AKA Likes Jack Daniels AKA Shoe Inserts AKA Papa Bless M
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