FFAC Recap: Week 12 - It's Go(bble) Time
I'm not scrambling, YOU'RE THE ONE SCRAMBLING
Sorry for the missed recap last week, I finally got a new excel license on my new PC so I can do the playoff stats. I'll get right into it so you can enjoy this (or maybe not depending on if you haven't clinched a playoff spot yet) with your turkey and the games on.
2. Danny (9-3, #2 seed clinched)
3. Ryan (8-4, playoff clinched, 40% 3 seed, 30% 4 seed, 10% 5 seed)
4. Ben (7-5, 90%, 50% 4 seed, 30% 5 seed, 10% 6 seed)
5. Fireball (7-5 80%, 10% 4 seed, 40% 5 seed, 27% 6 seed)
6. Cody (6-6, 45% as 6 seed)
IN THE HUNT
7. Zach (6-6, 22%, 12% as 5 seed, 10% as 6 seed)
OK, so only one more person trying to get in at a high level doesn't SEEM that exciting (MJ is technically not mathematically out, but he'd have to make up at LEAST a 99 point deficit in standings, which quite frankly will take multiple universal miracles. Same scenario for Ryan trying to get the 2nd seed and 1st round bye, simply too many points to make up).
However, Ben, Fireball, & Cody can technically be knocked out. There is a 51 point separation between all of them. AND, head to head match-up results are a bit all over the place, so there are quite a few scenarios here.
Please note that the "Loss to" OR scenarios imply that the team in question lost their game as well.
Ben clinches IF:
A win
OR
Losses to either Cody, Zach or Jason
Back to back losses to Ryan and Cody has actually put Ben in position to get knocked out if Cody or Zach can cover the point spread, so I was mistaken 2 weeks ago when I said he had clinched.
Fireball cliches IF:
A win
OR
Losses to Ben, Cody, or Zach
Fireball has a tiebreaker over Cody, but not against Zach
Cody clinches IF:
A win AND maintains a points for lead over Zach
OR
A win AND a loss to Ben AND overtakes Ben in points for
OR
A loss to Zach AND maintains a point for lead
Cody losses a tiebreaker with Fireball due to a head to head loss in week 7, and is tied with Ben head to head so needs a points for advantage there.
Zach clinches IF:
A win AND a loss to Cody
OR
A win AND overtakes Cody in points for
OR
A win AND a loss to Fireball
OR
A win AND a loss to Ben AND overtakes Ben in points for
OR
A loss to Cody AND overtakes Cody in points for
Zach has head to head tiebreaker over Fireball
Technically, Zach has the toughest path to get in, as a win alone won't be enough on top of needing to make up a little ground in points for. Similar situation with Cody, but as of this week, he holds the points over Zach, and they have not played each other this season.
The 3 seed is still up for grabs for Ben and Fireball technically, but if I got into seeding scenarios, this post would be pages long and I'm not tryna do that.
OK, those are the INDIVIDUAL scenarios, but there's also the possibility that seeds 4 to 7 end up 7-6. If that is the case, it will all come down to points for, in particular between Cody Zach and Fireball. The crazy part is that Fireball beat Cody, but lost to Zach, and Ben is head to head tied with Fireball and Cody, but never played Zach. So, effectively a 4 way tie cancels out all head to head and we go straight to points for. Let's see if Stefan can play spoiler here.
So here are their match-ups
Ryan (8-4) v Fireball (7-5)
Cody (6-6) v Jack (3-9)
Zach (6-6) v Jay (4-8)
Ben (7-5) v Stefan (2-10)
If this is confusing you at all, don't worry, I just spent an hour trying to make sense of a 4 way tie. Gonna go eat and scream at the tv some more. Happy Thanksgiving, y'all, thankful for this league.
PapaTurkeyTamaleBless out.
Sorry for the missed recap last week, I finally got a new excel license on my new PC so I can do the playoff stats. I'll get right into it so you can enjoy this (or maybe not depending on if you haven't clinched a playoff spot yet) with your turkey and the games on.
PLAYOFF PICTURE
1. Shelby (11-1, #1 seed clinched)2. Danny (9-3, #2 seed clinched)
3. Ryan (8-4, playoff clinched, 40% 3 seed, 30% 4 seed, 10% 5 seed)
4. Ben (7-5, 90%, 50% 4 seed, 30% 5 seed, 10% 6 seed)
5. Fireball (7-5 80%, 10% 4 seed, 40% 5 seed, 27% 6 seed)
6. Cody (6-6, 45% as 6 seed)
IN THE HUNT
7. Zach (6-6, 22%, 12% as 5 seed, 10% as 6 seed)
OK, so only one more person trying to get in at a high level doesn't SEEM that exciting (MJ is technically not mathematically out, but he'd have to make up at LEAST a 99 point deficit in standings, which quite frankly will take multiple universal miracles. Same scenario for Ryan trying to get the 2nd seed and 1st round bye, simply too many points to make up).
However, Ben, Fireball, & Cody can technically be knocked out. There is a 51 point separation between all of them. AND, head to head match-up results are a bit all over the place, so there are quite a few scenarios here.
Please note that the "Loss to" OR scenarios imply that the team in question lost their game as well.
Ben clinches IF:
A win
OR
Losses to either Cody, Zach or Jason
Back to back losses to Ryan and Cody has actually put Ben in position to get knocked out if Cody or Zach can cover the point spread, so I was mistaken 2 weeks ago when I said he had clinched.
Fireball cliches IF:
A win
OR
Losses to Ben, Cody, or Zach
Fireball has a tiebreaker over Cody, but not against Zach
Cody clinches IF:
A win AND maintains a points for lead over Zach
OR
A win AND a loss to Ben AND overtakes Ben in points for
OR
A loss to Zach AND maintains a point for lead
Cody losses a tiebreaker with Fireball due to a head to head loss in week 7, and is tied with Ben head to head so needs a points for advantage there.
Zach clinches IF:
A win AND a loss to Cody
OR
A win AND overtakes Cody in points for
OR
A win AND a loss to Fireball
OR
A win AND a loss to Ben AND overtakes Ben in points for
OR
A loss to Cody AND overtakes Cody in points for
Zach has head to head tiebreaker over Fireball
Technically, Zach has the toughest path to get in, as a win alone won't be enough on top of needing to make up a little ground in points for. Similar situation with Cody, but as of this week, he holds the points over Zach, and they have not played each other this season.
The 3 seed is still up for grabs for Ben and Fireball technically, but if I got into seeding scenarios, this post would be pages long and I'm not tryna do that.
OK, those are the INDIVIDUAL scenarios, but there's also the possibility that seeds 4 to 7 end up 7-6. If that is the case, it will all come down to points for, in particular between Cody Zach and Fireball. The crazy part is that Fireball beat Cody, but lost to Zach, and Ben is head to head tied with Fireball and Cody, but never played Zach. So, effectively a 4 way tie cancels out all head to head and we go straight to points for. Let's see if Stefan can play spoiler here.
So here are their match-ups
Ryan (8-4) v Fireball (7-5)
Cody (6-6) v Jack (3-9)
Zach (6-6) v Jay (4-8)
Ben (7-5) v Stefan (2-10)
If this is confusing you at all, don't worry, I just spent an hour trying to make sense of a 4 way tie. Gonna go eat and scream at the tv some more. Happy Thanksgiving, y'all, thankful for this league.
PapaTurkeyTamaleBless out.
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