FFAC Recap: Week 9 - Complete the dollar
Because we're 3 quarters of the way in to the regular season and it's time to start thinking about playoffs, kids.
This is our first playoff edition recap of the 2019 season so I'll keep last weeks recap light in order to get to the juicy shit y'all are here for.
RECAP
I'll get to the point, MJ is on a 3 game win streak, knocking off both myself and Fireball in the process, starting to make his season interesting going into the final 4th of our campaign. There's too much ground to make up to place him in the top 6 of scoring teams, but he doesn't need be at this point if the matchups keep working out. It took this deep into the season, but maybe MJ fulfills the comeback player of the year after all.
Zach ended his 3 game skid and hangs on to the 6th seed by the skin of his teeth, as he, MJ, Cody, & Adam all stand at 4-5. The best part is that only 33 points separate Zach (6) from Adam (9) in that bunch, and Ryan (5) is 5-4 so he's got some hungry players coming up on his tail as well.
So with that, I bring you:
PLAYOFF PICTURE
Here's where we stand heading into weeks 10-13:
1. Shelby (8-1)
2. Danny (6-3)
3. Ben (6-3)
4. Fireball (6-3)
5. Ryan (5-4)
6. Zach (4-5)
7. Cody (4-5)
8. MJ (4-5)
9. Adam (4-5)
10. Jay (3-6)
With 4 games left to play, technically 1-6 is still up for grabs, but realistically, Shelby is a lock for playoffs, and only 2 games separate the 2 seed from the 9 seed, so all of that can shake up very quickly here. And I'll toss Jay a bone here since he's technically only a game behind Zach. As for Stefan and Jack...well, I'll explain why you're left out in a moment.
I have explained this a few times in the past that you can read here but the basic premise is I take points, matchups, standings, & head to head in order to determine a probability of making the playoffs. 2500 simulations. So here we go:
Shelby (100%, 76% as a 1 seed). Shelby, I forgot to account for matchups earlier this week but with her win and losses to Fireball and Ben, she has officially clinched a playoff spot and actually cannot finish worse than 4th. Congrats, Shelbs, way to represent the ladies up in here.
Danny (94%, 18% as 1 seed, 32% as 2 seed, 24% as 3 seed)
Ben (95%, 2% as 1 seed, 27% as 2 seed, 34% as 3 seed)
Fireball (93%, 2% as 1 seed, 16% as 2, 21% as 3, 27% as 4)
Ryan (80%, 24% as 4, 30% as 5, 15% as 6)
Zach (22%, 4% as 5, 15% as 6)
Cody (36%, 9% as 5, 27% as 6)
MJ (18%, 5% as 5, 9% as 6)
Adam (40%, 11% as 5, 24% as 6)
Jay (4%, .5% as 5, 3.5% as 6)
Hopefully that's legible enough, but surprise surprise, this year instead of JUST the playoff odds, I'm also throwing in odds of what seed you'll land. Shelby, Ben, Fireball, & myself are all fighting for that 1st round bye, but as is the case pretty much every season, the real interesting stuff is seeds 5 and 6.
Ryan's got that 80% there riding high, as technically he is the favorite in the remainder of his matchups this season, but all by pretty thin margins. The numbers are subject to change (obviously), but because he's got just enough points to keep him from striking distance AND a game lead, a single win goes a long way for Ryan.
Zach, surprisingly, has a lower chance of holding on to his spot than both Cody and Adam, and a lot of it has to do with upcoming matchups and a projected drop off in points scored. That being said, he's in control of his own fate here.
Cody needs to start paying more attention because that 6 seed is primed for the taking, he has the highest chance of getting the 6 seed, but only if he sets his lineups, and benefits strongly by drawing Stefan and Jack for the final 2 games of the season.
MJ, look at us, who woulda thought? The comeback is going strong, but no one said it'd be easy. Of all the 4-5 teams remaining he has the lowest chance of breaking in, yet he's forced himself back into the conversation, so kudos to that.
Adam, out of the 4-5 teams, has the best shot at moving into that 5 spot, but has a couple touch matchups coming up.
And Jay, well, it's extremely unlikely but technically still in it. Really the only thing keeping things alive for Jay are the fact that Ryan, Adam, Zach & MJ all have matches against each other every week except week 11 the rest of the way, leaving that hope alive should Jay be able to win a couple games on the way there.
Stefan, Jack. You both have less than 1% chance of making the playoffs. Sorry, but it's kind of over for y'all.
So, there we go, here are your key matchups for week 10:
Danny (2) vs Cody (7)
MJ (8) vs Ben (3)
Zach (6) vs Fireball (4)
Ryan (5) vs Adam (9).
Let's. Get. Ready. To. RUMBLEEEEE
This is our first playoff edition recap of the 2019 season so I'll keep last weeks recap light in order to get to the juicy shit y'all are here for.
RECAP
I'll get to the point, MJ is on a 3 game win streak, knocking off both myself and Fireball in the process, starting to make his season interesting going into the final 4th of our campaign. There's too much ground to make up to place him in the top 6 of scoring teams, but he doesn't need be at this point if the matchups keep working out. It took this deep into the season, but maybe MJ fulfills the comeback player of the year after all.
Zach ended his 3 game skid and hangs on to the 6th seed by the skin of his teeth, as he, MJ, Cody, & Adam all stand at 4-5. The best part is that only 33 points separate Zach (6) from Adam (9) in that bunch, and Ryan (5) is 5-4 so he's got some hungry players coming up on his tail as well.
So with that, I bring you:
PLAYOFF PICTURE
Here's where we stand heading into weeks 10-13:
1. Shelby (8-1)
2. Danny (6-3)
3. Ben (6-3)
4. Fireball (6-3)
5. Ryan (5-4)
6. Zach (4-5)
7. Cody (4-5)
8. MJ (4-5)
9. Adam (4-5)
10. Jay (3-6)
With 4 games left to play, technically 1-6 is still up for grabs, but realistically, Shelby is a lock for playoffs, and only 2 games separate the 2 seed from the 9 seed, so all of that can shake up very quickly here. And I'll toss Jay a bone here since he's technically only a game behind Zach. As for Stefan and Jack...well, I'll explain why you're left out in a moment.
I have explained this a few times in the past that you can read here but the basic premise is I take points, matchups, standings, & head to head in order to determine a probability of making the playoffs. 2500 simulations. So here we go:
Shelby (100%, 76% as a 1 seed). Shelby, I forgot to account for matchups earlier this week but with her win and losses to Fireball and Ben, she has officially clinched a playoff spot and actually cannot finish worse than 4th. Congrats, Shelbs, way to represent the ladies up in here.
Danny (94%, 18% as 1 seed, 32% as 2 seed, 24% as 3 seed)
Ben (95%, 2% as 1 seed, 27% as 2 seed, 34% as 3 seed)
Fireball (93%, 2% as 1 seed, 16% as 2, 21% as 3, 27% as 4)
Ryan (80%, 24% as 4, 30% as 5, 15% as 6)
Zach (22%, 4% as 5, 15% as 6)
Cody (36%, 9% as 5, 27% as 6)
MJ (18%, 5% as 5, 9% as 6)
Adam (40%, 11% as 5, 24% as 6)
Jay (4%, .5% as 5, 3.5% as 6)
Hopefully that's legible enough, but surprise surprise, this year instead of JUST the playoff odds, I'm also throwing in odds of what seed you'll land. Shelby, Ben, Fireball, & myself are all fighting for that 1st round bye, but as is the case pretty much every season, the real interesting stuff is seeds 5 and 6.
Ryan's got that 80% there riding high, as technically he is the favorite in the remainder of his matchups this season, but all by pretty thin margins. The numbers are subject to change (obviously), but because he's got just enough points to keep him from striking distance AND a game lead, a single win goes a long way for Ryan.
Zach, surprisingly, has a lower chance of holding on to his spot than both Cody and Adam, and a lot of it has to do with upcoming matchups and a projected drop off in points scored. That being said, he's in control of his own fate here.
Cody needs to start paying more attention because that 6 seed is primed for the taking, he has the highest chance of getting the 6 seed, but only if he sets his lineups, and benefits strongly by drawing Stefan and Jack for the final 2 games of the season.
MJ, look at us, who woulda thought? The comeback is going strong, but no one said it'd be easy. Of all the 4-5 teams remaining he has the lowest chance of breaking in, yet he's forced himself back into the conversation, so kudos to that.
Adam, out of the 4-5 teams, has the best shot at moving into that 5 spot, but has a couple touch matchups coming up.
And Jay, well, it's extremely unlikely but technically still in it. Really the only thing keeping things alive for Jay are the fact that Ryan, Adam, Zach & MJ all have matches against each other every week except week 11 the rest of the way, leaving that hope alive should Jay be able to win a couple games on the way there.
Stefan, Jack. You both have less than 1% chance of making the playoffs. Sorry, but it's kind of over for y'all.
So, there we go, here are your key matchups for week 10:
Danny (2) vs Cody (7)
MJ (8) vs Ben (3)
Zach (6) vs Fireball (4)
Ryan (5) vs Adam (9).
Let's. Get. Ready. To. RUMBLEEEEE
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